Behaviour Change

As I was talking with my manager the other day about work related issues, I mentioned, the likely repeal of the Carbon Tax.
My manager, for whom I've always had a good relationship, immediately commented that taxing people was not a good way to change people's behaviour.
Now this surprised me, as public libraries survive on rates and local government regulations to provide the on-going funding for our services. In this case the population, as a whole, realize and approve of the taxation (rate). Public Libraries in Victoria have a very high approval rating and deliver services that can be measured as being worth more than their costs. The long term benefits of an informed and educated population have been effectively argued for a long time (see Thomas Jefferson quote), and are considered to be important in a democratic, open political system.

I have always felt the so-called Carbon Tax would be an effective mechanism in giving everyone the chance to rationally change their behaviour. Install more insulation and thus lower your power bills. Install solar panels and again lower your bills.
Not having a high electricity price does nothing to focus concern on this invisible substance called Carbon Dioxide. Giving handouts to polluters flies against the no-handout stance shown to struggling businesses like SPC, Holden etc.
Taxation & regulations however do not provide all the necessary levers to change behaviour. In an issue as complex as that of climate change, other mechanisms are absolutely necessary. We know the carrot can be more effective than the stick. Rebates encouraging insulation, solar panels and solar hot water spring to mind.
Their effectiveness has been demonstrated by the absolutely huge numbers of people taking up these offers.

Other mechanisms  include using social theory to encourage change and provide information. Mr Abbott's devastating use of simple messages has been hugely effective and us 'pro-climate' people need to replicate these simple, strong messages.
So a little research gave me this document. Changing Behaviour authored by the Australian Public Service.

Having a cost which is high enough to focus attention plus the tools and information to make a change, with leaders and communities is absolutely necessary.
Does repealing the Carbon Tax, dismantling the Clean Energy Financing mechanisms, stopping the RET and cutting off information on the real effects of climate change (Climate Council) sound like behaviour change? Reverse and perverse perhaps.
As the Public Service paper puts it
"A good example of a successful, comprehensive behavioural change strategy is Australia’s approach to tobacco control. There is a consensus in the Australian and international literature that a long-term and comprehensive approach to tobacco control is the most effective way of influencing the behaviour of smokers and potential smokers. Ad hoc, piecemeal action can have some impact but it is significantly more limited than a carefully planned, comprehensive, long-term approach encompassing education and information, legislation and restrictive measures and smoking cessation services. The comprehensive approach to tobacco control takes action in a range of areas using a range of policy tools. The effectiveness of the whole package is significantly greater than the sum of its parts."

So I'm off outside now to water my garden, parched with this excessive heat. Is this the heatwave we have to have or will that come again and again and again?

Tools of Change website (Canada)

Heatwave & Solar performance

While many of the plants in my garden are natives and planted to survive hot, dry conditions, there are some that have not.
So that's why my Silver Birch Trees are looking scorched and the Fuchsia is dry and frizzled after the latest heatwave,.






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The Financial Review last weekend published on its front page "Wind and Solar can't handle heat" by Angela Macdonald-Smith.
The RenewEconomy writer Ric Brazzale  hit back with an article indicating that Solar had helped to provide enough electricity during the heatwave days to reduce the peak load on the network. The effect of solar has also been to move the peak demand to later in the day as well.

"Solar PV’s contribution has been a lot more than just reducing peak demand by 4.6%. Its operation has meant that much higher cost generators have not had to be dispatched. As a result the wholesale power price has not risen anywhere near as high as other times when we have reached very high levels of demand. As a comparison Victoria’s previous peak demand of 10,415 MW occurred on Thursday, 29 January 2009 in the half hour period commencing 12.30 pm. The average wholesale market price during the afternoon (12.00 pm to 6.00pm) was $4,619/MWh."
and 
"Without the contribution of solar PV, many more assets would have come under pressure and more customers will have been disconnected.'

See the Australian Photovoltaic Insitute for details.

And by the way, comparing small scale PV on people's roofs to that of a large coal fired power station, as the AFR writer did, is patently absurd. I never bought my unit to be the sole electricity source and the advances in solar storage have not yet been made to allow the energy to be cheaply and easily stored. But that is coming, faster than the CO2 dinosaurs think.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/graph-of-the-day-how-aemo-saw-rooftop-solar-in-heatwave-27763 for the information below.

Heatwave conditions

Today is forecast to be the last in the four days of above 40 degree heat.
The cool change has been forecast to arrive approx 8 pm, late enough for us to easily reach 44 degrees.
I have been amazed at how well my garden has survived.
Last year one day of +40 degree heat saw one of my silver birch trees frizzle and drop all their leaves. The tree only recovered this spring.

Given that all three of my beautiful silver birch trees are looking ok after four days of searing heat makes me aware of how the soil and wind conditions matter.
This spring has been wet, with 2011 & 2013 also being wet. Obviously the water table underground is a lot healthier than in the previous 15 years of drought conditions. I can see this with the crack in the garage wall now closed when previously it was several cm's wide.
I have also been watering the tree regularly (which makes me suspect that last year it wasn't watered enough when I was on holiday!).

The other difference is the wind.
Over the last three days (and even now) we have had a gentle, though very hot breeze.

My memory of Black Saturday in 2009 is a searing gale. My friend celebrated her 60th Birthday inside a small Melbourne terrace house, instead of outside in the park. When driving back home we were aware not only of the strong gusty change but also of the fires at Seymour, Marysville and Churchill areas.

Currently, our Emergency personnel are battling lots of smaller fires in exceedingly difficult conditions. But fortunately, not the catastrophic conditions of 2009. I hope for all our sakes it doesn't get that way when the change arrives tonight.
But hats off to all those people working in the front-line. Fire brigade and volunteers, police, doctors & nurses, ambulance people. They do a great job and I'm deeply appreciative.
All public servants too!
Try this heatwave tracker animation from the ABC

House Hold Heat

My 20 year old house follows some of Australia's building trends.
Its bigger than my previous small three bedroom home with more bedrooms and an open plan living area.
It is insulated in ceiling & walls but made with brick veneer.
We have roof vents to allow the heat to escape and the building has plenty of north facing windows, shaded from the rays of the sun in the summer.

A reasonable passive solar house design 20 years ago but not one that would pass muster for a 6-8 star energy design.This is how the house has functioned after two days of above 40 degrees C heat.

Day 1( Tuesday 14 Jan) & Day 3 (Thursday 16 Jan ) information:

Tuesday	14 Jan 2014	Melbourne	42 C Forecast
Time	Temp (ext) o C	Temp (int) o C	PV Output
6:00 am	19	22	0.0 kWh
8:30 am	26	23	0.06 kWh
9:30 am	33	24	0.26 kWh
12:45 pm	39	26.5	2.18 kWh
2:15 pm	40.6	27	3.38 kWh
4:04 pm	42	27.5	4.68kWh
6:10 pm	42	28	5.60 kWh
8:00 pm	38.6	27	5.78 kWh
Thursday	16 Jan 2014	Melbourne	44 C Forecast
Time	Temp (ext) o C	Temp (int) o C	PV Output
6:00 am	19	22	0.0 kWh
8:30 am	26	23	0.06 kWh
9:30 am	32.4	28	0.03 kWh
12:45 pm	40	30	1.70 kWh
2:15 pm	41.7	28.5	3.07 kWh
3:30 pm	43.9	29.5	3.90 kWh
6:10 pm	41 (approx)	30	? kWh
8:00 pm	41 (approx)	28	6 (approx) kWh

Heatwave Melbourne

Take care in the heat today and tomorrow.

From 22 degrees C this morning at approx 6:30 pm the temperature has climbed to 33 degrees Celsius by 9:30 am.

The forecast top of 43 degrees looks very likely to be broken. 109 degrees F is seriously hot for Melbourne in January.

I can handle one day of this heat, but I will see how I perform after 4 days!

Remember the 1939 Black Friday bushfires occurred under similar temperatures. This year we have had a wet spring so hopefully the vegetation is not so vulnerable to bushfires.

Residents in WA Perth Hills are in shock with the loss of houses yesterday. Good luck to them in trying to return to their properties in the next day or so.

Serenity for the hot week ahead

To encourage me to feel calm and collected for the heat-wave about to hit Melbourne this week, I took a photo of some lovely water lilies.
Hopefully floating in a pond will mean they won't be too stressed by the >41 degree C heat forecast for Tuesday.
A heatwave that will cause much distress among some of our population.

2 Million Solar and Mr Abbott talks about Coal and Gas!

On ABC Radio World Today, our Prime Minister Tony Abbott made some short-sighted comments regarding Renewable Energy.

Join http://www.solarcitizens.org.au/

"Australia should be the affordable energy capital of the world" and  "Australia has a super abundance of coal and gas"

Yes Tony I agree to the first which is why I have Solar PV. The sun is free! We also have a superabundance of solar generated electricity which is now as cheap as electricity generated by highly polluting coal and gas.
The answers to the problem of variable supply are already here, it just needs government and investment policies that encourage implementation. This is where the RET and the Australian Clean Energy Finance Corporation comes in.
But I forget, these are organisations you and your government have decided not to listen to or value. Thus I am cynical your RET review will deliver anything other than what the Coal and Gas lobbies would like.

See the Renew Economy report on 2 million small solar installations to see what we have achieved in a few short years.

Extremes

Last night I shivered in my summer PJ's as the cool summer in Melbourne continued under dreary grey skies, wind and a bit of rain.

Melbourne Experienced Wild Winds on Sunday 5th January 14

Meanwhile Queensland continued its run of extreme weather with a lightning storm following days of extreme heat. West Australia is also experiencing the hot weather, but those boom town folks are used to this!
Its been 4 years since my 1 kW Photovoltaic solar power unit was installed. Since then the number of units on roofs nearby has mushroomed, showing how my neighbours, mostly average Australians, have realized the benefits.
Unlike the current batch of reactionary, myopic, big-business oriented politicians!

In case you were still wondering how scientists managed to decide the globe is warming when its so chilly outside read these articles from the Conversation.

• https://theconversation.com/150-years-and-counting-confidence-in-climate-science-17179
• https://theconversation.com/australias-hottest-year-was-no-freak-event-humans-caused-it-21734

Then go and read an actual book from your local library - one that discusses in more depth the pros and cons, theories, facts, knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns of science.
Somewhat more authoritative than the denialists and loud-mouthed opposition.

You never know what might happen if one looks past one's prejudices.
How do we get people to listen? More conversation about conservation!.

Greenpeace activists, Julie Bishop and Consular Charges.

The Bureau of Meteorology has released information saying 2013 was the warmest year since records began in 1910 with the Conversation having a nice overview by several BOM climatologists.
So much for Climate deniers and even Skeptics who reported no warming trend since 1986!

This makes the current Federal governments War on the Environment more concerning than ever. Since the release of the Greenpeace protesters from Russia, Australia's Foreign Minister, 'ice queen' Julie Bishop has mentioned she might charge Greenpeace for consular assistance costs.

Gamer's Sign: Perhaps for the rest of the world?

Imagine yourself as a businessman in some of the less salubrious parts of the world (more than half of the countries I would suspect). Have you heard suggestions business should also pay for the consular assistance they receive, I would imagine more regularly than Greenpeace does?

Its a farce and a dangerous one at that.
One of the civil contracts between citizens and their governments is that we can receive consular assistance in times of troubles. Be that emergency evacuation in times of troubled conflicts, earthquakes etc or visits and pressure applied to make other governments treat us with respect when detained.

As a citizen we expect our governments, police and emergency personnel to provide these services without fear or favour, not because we can pay, but because the entire population feels this is an appropriate service. Its a community service that the Federal Government has responsibility for.

Have we become so committed to user pays ideology that common sense is on the back foot?

2014 New Year Resolutions

My resolutions for 2014 are as follows:

Melbourne's Beautiful Federation Square

1. Continue to battle the bulge - in belongings, waistline, excess spending etc
2. Contribute more to Environment Groups battling the desecration of all parts of the Australian Environment - land, water, sea and air. We'll be watching you Federal & State Governments and corporations!
3. Try to motivate my family to take care of themselves, their belongings and me! Unfortunately a lost cause as I suspect as my influence disappeared the day I tried to get them to be adults and take responsibility for computer use, their own washing, dentist bookings, hair cuts and helping around the house. But I'll keep trying!
4. Try and keep a closer eye on the elders of the family. Being located in a country 3000km away makes this one a bit difficult but as they get older, the possibility that I'll need to make a rushed flight to attend to a funeral only increases. Celebrating their life is important.
5. Try to be healthy, happy and interested in life.
6. Try to reduce my environmental footprint a bit. Time for serious renovations including possible double glazing! This is dependent on outside factors in my life!

 So Happy New Year to all of you. 

As the popular quotation " May you live in interesting times!" is often defined as a Chinese Curse, I will hope instead that the world we live in becomes more equitable, sustainable and enjoyable to all its inhabitants.