Malcolm speaks out

Last night, a somewhat muted and weary sounding Malcolm Turnbull seemed to refute a number of criticisms of the Global Warming debate, saying "a war was being waged on scientists by "those opposed to taking action to cut emissions, many because it does not suit their own financial interests"." and that " the rejection of scientific consensus on global warming was not Liberal Party policy. "Quite the contrary," he said. "The Liberal Party's policy is to accept the scientific consensus that the globe is warming and that human greenhouse gas emissions are substantially the cause of it.""

As Malcom Turnbull's blog points out on the 21 July2011 Lateline interview: "The second point I made in the interview which has been the subject of criticism in the media is my remark that direct action would be a charge on the budget. Well, let’s be fair dinkum about this. The whole point of direct action is that abatement is funded out of the budget as opposed to being funded by an impost on emitting industries who then pass it on to their customers in higher electricity or fuel prices. In other words emitting industries do not face an uniform economic incentive to cut their emissions under direct action. Instead the Government is obliged to pay for carbon credits to offset enough of those emissions to meet the target and the Government may choose to pay particular firms to convert their operations to lower emission intensities. Either way the Government picks up the tab – that’s the whole idea."

So to those who want a "balanced view of the science" do you want to argue about banning di-hydrogen monoxide or simply want enough of it to drink! Quite often, in science, there are facts based on high probability rather than balance.

Big City Life

School holidays ended last week. So now I have been taking up to 1 hour driving to work (tuesday) and 1 hour travelling home from work (wednesday). So tiring especially since there were public transport problems as well.
Yesterday, I took the train to the city to an all-day workshop. Surprisingly both the trains and the roads were relatively clear, so both forms of transport worked well.
A bit like the Internet - excellent when working but society almost falls apart when there is either an accident or the Internet is down (or so my borrowers give me to understand)
The all day seminar was very invigorating - its amazing what a little bit of networking and new ideas does to the spirit. Its refreshing to hear information delivered by people who do not work for the product vendors. The pros and cons of various decisions are clearly enunciated. Several participants brought their iPAD's and iPhones to the meeting to take notes, but I stuck with good old pencil and notebook, as my typing is not that good whilst concentrating. And the notes from the meeting will be posted on the web.
But back to work again tomorrow - a full weekend of it. Here's hoping what I've learn't will be put into practice sometime soon, crossing fingers and hoping funding comes through for staff resources to maintain my skill level.
After all, we are the clever country, aren't we??

Carbon Tax and Me

Since the announcement of the Carbon Tax by the Prime Minister on Sunday media commentators have been asking people to call in/tweet/comment on the Tax and how it would affect their lives and families.
So how will it affect me?
My family income is above the $85,000 but nowhere near the $150,000 - $200,000. So we will get something from the household compensation package.
We have recently changed our solar-electric hot water system to a solar-gas hot water system at some cost to ourselves. We used the 2x $900 handout from the Federal Government (2 years ago) to purchase 1 KwH of Solar Electric Photovoltaic Panels and will keep an eye out for any decrease in cost/ improvement in technology to increase this if possible.
We are looking at Double Glazing part of our windows, though without any cost estimates as yet this may be delayed again.
And the triple-burn, enclosed wood fire is our main heating at night.
I am pleased there will be a $10 billion Renewable Energy fund but whether this will be aimed at the small consumer or to raise the $$ for large renewable energy research and development is not clear to me. I suspect the fund is there to benefit the latter stuff and hope Solar-Thermal and Geo-Thermal developments get going quickly to try and answer the critics regarding base-load power generation.(Note considerable rise in stock prices of some of these firms - you might have got a bit richer yesterday)
While watching Julia Gillard answering questions on Q and A, I noticed that she failed to convince many of the questioners. I wonder if the lady who asked her to simplify her answers got what she needed.
Hopefully, simplifying the conversation about the Carbon Tax doesn't lose sight of a number of scientific, moral and competitive reasons it was brought in. Many of the tweets were spot on with their comments.
I did like one of her last statements to the question " Can the Prime Minster guarantee the Carbon Price won't rise?" by Suleman Khan, NSW. Quick as a whippet she replied "Absolutely none", as she explained the whole point is for the price to rise. I would have liked more direct language like that. Download the transcript and see for yourself.
No Prime Minister can guarantee all your jobs, that interest rates will or won't rise (or decrease), that all people make the right decisions. After all we are an irrational race, especially seduced by simplified language for complex questions that require more attention than even Q and A can give.
So I urge all doubters to keep asking, keep reading and wait to see if the sky falls in from this time next year. I survived the GST (10%) price increase without bi-partisan support.
Time will tell if the price on Carbon will change both the "Big Polluters" behaviour as well as our own. So download the plan from http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/clean-energy-future/our-plan/ and read it yourself.

Carbon Tax Imminent

Sunday, the BIG day for the announcement of the "Carbon Tax" by the Federal Government. Will the announcement of the announcement as Ben Eltham reports start a blizzard of reactions before the actual announcements. Will the commercial TV channels have advertisements from every lobby group under the sun over the next few weeks to try and bring the scheme down??
Will you be watching the announcement? Will the price on Carbon, about to be announced, be what you expected or hoped?
We are being carefully primed to expect a low carbon price, a transition to a higher price (ETS) and substantial recompense to almost anyone affected. Is this Tax going to be enough for the Australian public and enough for the Prime Minister to get re-elected, as well as going down in history as the architect of a big reform?
So will this Tax be effective? History will tell, as well as the next federal election. By the way this is not a belief but something measurable & possibly scientifically based.
I'm sure a higher price for electricity won't stop me from using it to heat and cool parts of my house, but perhaps the flow of money to the renewable sector may stop the boom and bust aspects of the industry.
As a Librarian I wonder if anyone will ask about the details of the Announcement. We have occasional questions regarding a carbon tax, as well as other questions on solar power, solar hot water. Like most government announcements, reading the detail is important, though quite often highly boring.
Shall we leave to the shock jocks and media commentators?

On Holiday in the Shaky Isles

Recently I took a well earned break from work & family and flew (Air New Zealand) to the shaky isles. I was a bit worried by the difference in policy between Air New Zealand (flying under & around the ash cloud) and other airlines (not flying at all). But I arrived safely at my destination and have returned, recharged and rested. And yes I did purchase carbon credits for flying, though in NZ dollars (for tree planting over there).
I was staying with elderly relatives in the North Island and spent nearly 2 weeks without any form of computer or internet access, and much of the time without radio and TV also! I must admit to feeling considerable withdrawal symptoms without electronic information access.
While away I saw first hand some of the ongoing damage and problems occurring in Christchurch. My family member who lives there was detailing the liquefaction, subsidence and ongoing aftershocks and increasing damage to houses from these shocks.
I saw Prime Minister John Key addressing the nation from Christchurch and announcing the permanent buy back of some $5000 home in the "red zone".(see http://www.landcheck.org.nz/)
John Key also outlined the damage to the New Zealand economy (some 8 Percent of GDP) and the cost to the New Zealand government (and taxpayer) of between $485 - $635 million. A further 10,000 people are in the orange zone awaiting assessment and unknown numbers in the white zone which has been affected by more aftershocks.
After these announcements it was heartening to hear the Greens announce that negotiations about the carbon tax are going well and that perhaps an agreement will be reached in the next couple of weeks. Do we think the carbon tax will affect Australia's economy to the tune of 8% GDP like New Zealand is facing?
Many cities in NZ are now also facing a lack of ability to insure their public infrastructure as the worldwide reinsurance industry is somewhat chary of adding to its risk profiles. This reaction is quite understandable in private industry, After all they cannot afford to operate at a loss but it underscores the problems governments face (remember Premier Anna Bligh and why Queensland didn't hold flood insurance).
I wonder how the actuaries are going after the earthquakes in Japan & NZ, how their risk profiles are changing and how much possible climate change damages will affect premiums throughout the world.