Friday, July 1, 2011

On Holiday in the Shaky Isles

Recently I took a well earned break from work & family and flew (Air New Zealand) to the shaky isles. I was a bit worried by the difference in policy between Air New Zealand (flying under & around the ash cloud) and other airlines (not flying at all). But I arrived safely at my destination and have returned, recharged and rested. And yes I did purchase carbon credits for flying, though in NZ dollars (for tree planting over there).
I was staying with elderly relatives in the North Island and spent nearly 2 weeks without any form of computer or internet access, and much of the time without radio and TV also! I must admit to feeling considerable withdrawal symptoms without electronic information access.
While away I saw first hand some of the ongoing damage and problems occurring in Christchurch. My family member who lives there was detailing the liquefaction, subsidence and ongoing aftershocks and increasing damage to houses from these shocks.
I saw Prime Minister John Key addressing the nation from Christchurch and announcing the permanent buy back of some $5000 home in the "red zone".(see http://www.landcheck.org.nz/)
John Key also outlined the damage to the New Zealand economy (some 8 Percent of GDP) and the cost to the New Zealand government (and taxpayer) of between $485 - $635 million. A further 10,000 people are in the orange zone awaiting assessment and unknown numbers in the white zone which has been affected by more aftershocks.
After these announcements it was heartening to hear the Greens announce that negotiations about the carbon tax are going well and that perhaps an agreement will be reached in the next couple of weeks. Do we think the carbon tax will affect Australia's economy to the tune of 8% GDP like New Zealand is facing?
Many cities in NZ are now also facing a lack of ability to insure their public infrastructure as the worldwide reinsurance industry is somewhat chary of adding to its risk profiles. This reaction is quite understandable in private industry, After all they cannot afford to operate at a loss but it underscores the problems governments face (remember Premier Anna Bligh and why Queensland didn't hold flood insurance).
I wonder how the actuaries are going after the earthquakes in Japan & NZ, how their risk profiles are changing and how much possible climate change damages will affect premiums throughout the world.

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Greenstone Girl