Consilience, Science and Politics

Today's ABC Radio National's Science Show gave one of the best discussions on why the scientific method works. Consilience Powers the Big Scientific Ideas by Paul Willis talks about the multiple lines of evidence that interweave and support a scientific theory. Big ideas such as the Theory of Evolution and Climate Change are supported by thousands of experiments by thousands of scientists, who vigorously attack, repeat and extend the results of those who came before them. Thus the theory builds robustness,
nuance and specificity.

Meanwhile, those who attack some of these consensus theories, do so by cherry picking- single criticisms built into improbable heights. Most legitimate scientists talk about the known knowns, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns. By which they mean the grey areas and questions still to be answered and indeed asked. Thus building consilience.

Such scientific processes are different from what the rest of the world uses. Politics is the art of the possible - getting the members of the party and the people to agree to what is proposed. We saw this week what happens when the science becomes politically savaged when the Federal Parliament House of Representatives repealed the Carbon Tax, Australia's price on Carbon Pollution. Its a shameful episode in our history - economic theory, scientific theory and politics coming to very different results. I too can only say sorry this has happened like Ross Gittins in the Sydney Morning Herald

I've always felt that until and unless our economic systems are soundly built on the long-term energetic's of our natural world, we will do nothing productive, sustainable or correct. I look forward to the battle in the Australian senate on the Carbon Tax Repeal. As someone who gathered in Melbourne's Treasury Gardens and signed several petitions, I hope the small minority of people who are genuinely concerned can sway the political process in this time of greed and insanity.

Warsaw Climate Talks about Money

Various reports on the non-progress of the Warsaw Climate Change Talks should come as no surprise to Climate Change Activists.
The Guardian Reports on Sunday 17 November2013 :  Climate change pledges: rich nations face fury over moves to renege. " The developing world also wants the rich western nations to commit to establishing a compensation scheme for future extreme weather events, as the impact of global warming is increasingly felt. And they want firm signals that rich countries intend to find at least $100bn a year by 2020 to help them to adapt their countries to severe climate extremes"


Also check out the Germanwatch Report: Climate Change Performance Index 2014 where Australia ranks near the bottom and is sliding downwards.

Given the Conservative side of politics ( in Australia) has always said they will do something if everyone else agrees and then walks away from high level attendance at those international meetings, its pretty obvious that they will do nothing other than extract our carbon resources and damn the poor and developing worlds to further poverty. Damning our own rich country in the process.

Can you imagine Australia giving more $$ to any poor country as a result of trying to adapt to severe climates?
Meanwhile the Climate Council has released its latest report

regarding warm October Weather. They will have trouble getting Victorian's to agree if November turns out to be the same, as we have had unusually wet and cold weather (or so it seems). This again shows how science and individual perspectives collide. My sense of the weather and the measurement of Climate are two separate things.

Science can, by its very nature, completely counter intuitive and you reject it at your peril.

Rally attracts thousands

The Treasury Gardens was a sea of red and green today as thousands turned up for the National Climate Action Day Rally. The beautiful green of the spring trees and blue sky contrasted with the red T-shirts of the protesters.

Melbourne Climate Change Rally- 17 Nov @ 11 am

Sunday 17 November is the day for the various Green Groups to rally outside of Treasury Place Melbourne at 11 am. Join with the Australian Conservation Foundation and others in the community.

Hopefully, I and some of my family will be there, protesting against the repeal of legislation designed to address the moral, physical and economics issue of atmospheric pollution through the emission of greenhouse gases - otherwise known as Climate Change.

I would have preferred an outright majority in the recent Federal Election to help ram home the importance of this issue,  but I urge the Labor Party to continue to take a stand along with the Greens.

As Tony Windsor mentioned recently on Jon Faine's Program on ABC Radio, soil carbon has a hard time staying bound in Australian soils. Not tackling the chief emitters of CO2, the electricity, gas and other industries is like burying out heads in the sand and wondering why we can't see clearly.
Listen here (from 13.6 minutes in):

Federal Parliament Resumes: The Calm before the Storm perhaps?

Like many 'normal' people I've been astounded by the lack of media surrounding the various decisions and policy directions of the new Abbott Coalition Government.
Any utterance from the previous government, not an official Coalition but an uneasy alliance of groups, was met from many influential media commentators with a form of viciousness and hysteria that effectively blocked any conversation on what was actually happening.
The current calm, honeymoon period would seem welcome except that I suspect the very media restraint has more to do with control than anything real.

My acquaintance with the 48 Laws of Power indicates Law 4: Always say less than necessary is being followed scrupulously by both Coalition politicians and their media colleagues. Thus we hear very little happening about the "Stop the Boats" promise. News is seemingly coming through, supposedly from Indonesian sources, of boats being stopped at sea, being 'sent' back to Indonesia and having this action refused by the sovereign Indonesian Government. The boats are then taken to Christmas Island.
End result - the policies are not working!
So although the Boat numbers have slowed, before and after the elections, due to the government policy of off-shoring the migration, the boats have not stopped. But our daily 'information' has.
"Knowledge is power" said Sir Francis Bacon (or the latin translation)
Lack of media criticism is worrying but lack of media hysteria is not.

Today Tony Windsor, ex Interdependent MP from New England, gave a thoughtful answer to why the Carbon Tax should not be repealed (ABC Radio 774) . As a farmer of many years and politician as well, I have always been impressed at how he actually answers the questions, not with personal attacks, OTT hysteria and a rising voice of anger, but a considered statement of his views, experience and indication of actual knowledge. He will be missed.

So the first action of Tony Abbott's Government will be the repeal of the Carbon Tax. I urge all the opposition parties in both Houses and particularly the Senate, to hold firm. Don't abolish the Carbon Tax. The people are not always right particularly if fed misinformation, business is not always right and the environment is needing a helping hand. We must pay for our pollution and we must allow policies that affirm the right of the environment ahead of almost anything else.
Can you imagine Typhoon Hiyan hitting Brisbane or Sydney?? What cost for a few $$ per day to us all, including business?

Storm Clouds over Climate Change Efforts

The election of the Federal Liberal Coalition has emboldened traditional energy suppliers in a backlash against Solar and other renewable energies.
Given that 1 million households have installed rooftop solar, this smacks of powerful entrenched interests defending their bottom line (investment in $$ and profits) ahead of environmental benefits (no surprises there), innovation, cost competitiveness with new technologies (solar and wind) and the wish to pull back on policies that have led to this disruptive change.
As the debate regarding subsidizing the car industry is coming to a head with the new government, so too should the debate regarding subsidizing the coal industry and entrenched energy suppliers.
Yesterdays Renew Economy reported that a South Australian Network Operator intends to cancel any Feed in Tariff's if a household solar supplier installs a fuel cell or battery storage. Leaving aside whether there would be much electricity to feed in if you have battery storage, the move further entrenches the feeling Small Scale Solar Suppliers, like myself, have that we are really not wanted by our major electrical suppliers.

As the article puts it - "Given that the vast majority of South Australian solar households are currently on some type of FIT, this policy effectively wipes out the cost effectiveness of using storage in South Australia for the time being.  Intriguingly, only a few weeks ago some Californian distributors used the same blocking tactics and refused to connect some customers who had purchased solar with storage systems although fortunately, only a  week later new regulations were introduced that mandated the introduction of storage.

It is somewhat telling that in their own industry briefing SA Power Networks acknowledge that “..as customers and the Industry seek the next technological innovation to reduce electricity demand and reliance on conventional electricity distribution networks, the emergence of fuel cells and battery storage systems is starting to gain momentum”. 

And I thought there were some limits on anti-competitive behaviour on the part of monopolies. That Australia, with huge amounts of sunlight would welcome people being responsible for their use of electricity and feed the excess into the grid for the benefit of their neighbours, thus improving the cost situation in peak times such as a hot summer day. Extending this advantage to solar storage is just throwing more dust into the eyes of the naysayers who said solar would not manage baseload power at an affordable rate so will be hard fought by all involved.

But small people such as myself are relatively powerless unless we lobby governments, hence Solar Citizens. As the Renew Economy puts it:

“Solar consumers have the right to a fair contract with electricity retailers, and one that is not to their financial disadvantage, under the Australian Consumer Law.177 However, the structure of the electricity industry, and relationship between retailers and customers, means that solar consumers have limited market power. Where this constrains consumer choice or creates an uneven playing field for solar compared to other sources of electricity, governments may need to intervene to protect consumer rights” .

So are we waiting to hear from State and Federal Governments on this one? I fear a deafening silence.

One last thing. The Climate Change Authority's Draft Report on "Reducing Australia's Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Targets and Progress" is available here with accompanying information, webinars and press releases.