Electricity prices, solar power and cost benefits

A couple of articles have recently caught my eye. The weekend Financial Review article "Will the lights really go out?" by Angela Macdonald-Smith (Nov 27-28) argues that there is only a short window of time before the lack of investment in power generation has unfortunate effects - blackouts! "With or without a carbon price the bills are heading skywards". As someone who can't stand the heat, I've invested both in air conditioning and solar power so my electricity bills will probably increase. But if the lights go out (blackout) then so will my rooftop electricity generation capacity.
I'm one of the "lucky ones who have solar panels on their roofs" according to Macdonald-Smith a "technology that costs 10 times as much as other emission reduction initiatives!"
The recent review by Andrew Macintosh  on the Federal Governments Solar PV Rebate Program also questioned its cost effectiveness. It was interesting to read that "during the mid-2000s, BP Solar produced around 35 to 42 MW of PV cells and 8 to 12 MW of PV modules at a plant in Sydney. The cells were manufactured from imported wafers and most (roughly 80 per cent) were exported. Similarly, around 50 per cent of BP Solar’s modules were exported. In March 2009, BP Solar closed its Australian operations." Since all the wafers were imported it means the much vaunted target of manufacturing in Australia is a bit of a smokescreen.
The report concludes "The program was a major driver of a more than six-fold increase in PV generation
capacity and output in the 2000s" and "it is reasonable to assume that the PVRP-SHCP (solar scheme names) had some impact on community attitudes". It also concludes the rebate prior to the Rudd government created "uncertainty and lack of investment". Whilst the blow-out in costs under Rudd showed the program flaws.
Given that solar PV is costly it will be interesting to see if  major PV production increases by China plus further research will drive prices down enough to make PV affordable and cost effective without public subsidies. Then we can revisit the cost effectiveness debate.